Considering the fact that such devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, let's start with the fact that the monetary unit of Belarus in the last few months showed a sharp strengthening in the basket currency. A parallel phenomenon has been a significant depreciation of the monetary units against the dollar and the Euro. According to experts, a prerequisite for such a situation in the country was the economy of the state and the world in General. In the period from January to November 2014, the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble occurred on average by 2.25% against the Euro, the dollar and the Russian ruble. The reason is the fall of the Russian ruble and exit the Euro currency on the international market. If last year the question whether the devaluation of the ruble, was asked by many, today the answer is quite obvious. Will, and not one.
In accordance with the information provided by NB of the Republic, since the beginning of 2015, the depreciation of the national currency to the U.S. dollar made up 1.92% and the Euro – of 2.46%. And all anything, but the population is used to measure the level of their wealth in us currency. As mentioned above, there was a strengthening of the currency to the Russian ruble by about 18%. This fact does not change the mood of the devaluation. Since 2000 was adopted to make predictions and to keep their savings in dollars. This trend pushes to the fact that the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble in 2015 will be felt. According to analysts, the national Bank regulates the exchange rate in the country, it systematically reduces the value of the ruble.
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Considering the fact that such devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, it is impossible not to pay attention to the causes of the phenomenon. The situation is due to the fact that as a result of the decline of the world economy, the country stopped buying currency to the extent in which bought previously. Consequently, the flow of dollars does not cover the outflow of currency from the state. The demand exceeds the supply. The difference is covered by borrowing. This causes the smooth fall of the national currency. The absence of factors that could radically change the situation, only evidence of the continuation of the trend. The lack of hard currency in the country indicates a significant revaluation of the Belarusian currency to the US dollar, which in July 2014 was at the level of 20-30%. At a high level of inflation products of the state are rapidly growing in price on international markets, imports become more attractive for citizens. The increase in imbalance leads to the need for the state to begin the devaluation of the ruble to eliminate the disharmony within the currency market.
Because Of tight binding of the Belarusian ruble to the U.S. dollar, as noted above, in foreign markets there is a strong imbalance. While the national currency depreciates against the dollar, it has strengthened compared to other currencies of the world. The government has decided to send the exchange rate to float freely, so as to maintain stability in this sector is not obtained. Before the crisis the Central Bank's policy was aimed at reducing the currency's value within a 1% per month. The elimination of the fixed exchange rate should help solve problems with the export. The increase in external debt, destabilization of the banking system – this is just temporary phenomena which in the future will become the past.
To understand the issue about what the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, you need to initially make an assessment of the economic situation. Preliminary data indicates that by the end of 2015, the devaluation of the national currency will reach 40–50%. One of the main reasons – the increase of the crisis phenomena at the next-door neighbor, Russia, exponentially. The country is more than 60–70% dependent on Russia, therefore, to build partnerships with each time will be harder. The current crisis differs from past problems that it is formed by several factors. It is not only internal reasons, but external ones, such as sanctions by the EU and the fall in oil prices. The credit rating of Russia – this latest investment place and predstavlenny level. The capital market for a neighbor Belarus is closed, the value of money grows, the neighbors become more generous. In parallel, the cost of money increases for the Belarusian business. Today the refinancing rate in Russia is 8,25%, and in Belarus-25%. These figures will increase until, until will fall the price of oil and while there are active sanctions. The above-described circumstances directly affect every citizen of the country through the ruble of Belarus. Significant changes in development can make future elections in the country.
The Question whether the devaluation of the ruble, or not, has disappeared, but its volume can be questioned. Figure 40–50% few people happy. Problems may arise in such sectors as retail and financial sector, real estate, other directions orientedon the end user. President Lukashenko on a press-conferences spoke about the relevance of the liberation of the ruble due to currency panic of the population. The government has never been the devaluation of the ruble, and the mortgage always had to stay within available. This decision is due to the fact that the government intends to maintain its gold reserves. Open policy of Belarus could not feel the crisis in the Ukraine and Russia. Despite the panic, in the course and today are monitoring. The change of the economic model is not planned. Moreover, it was stated to the public that the reasons for the devaluation of the ruble in 2015 multilateral fortunately, with time, the situation will change drastically.
Devaluation expectations in the society have an impact on the increase of inflation because of the demand for currency and commodities. The growth of the needs of the population in dollars, Euro and even the rubles suppressed further devaluation. It accelerates inflation. At the end of 2014 with the aim to bring down demand for the currency, the government introduced the Commission for the purchase of foreign money in the amount of 30%. After the fall of the boom, the percentage began to cancel in increments of 10%, which was accompanied by a parallel fall in the value of the national currency not less than 7% each time. It was a step of the state towards the business. The percentage for the currency exchange was offset by the fall in the value of money.
If the situation in the country will develop this format further in the near future the question of what is devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, will be replaced by the expectation of inflation. It will cause growth of interest rates on deposits, which will increase the desire of the population to savings. Virtually no doubt the fact that more than one month will continue the devaluation of the ruble in 2015. What do the population in this situation? Do not panic. This will be the most efficient solution under the circumstances. Loose monetary policy can generate inflation of one another, thus forming inflationary spiral. If the phenomenon will take place, the government will have to first pay attention to business and private households, and the poor.
The Question of what it means devaluation of the ruble, not too worried about the public at the end of 2014. This is due to the fact that the phenomenon to avoid in any way would not have happened. The reason for this was the problems faced by the exports of Russia. Subjective and psychological factors provoked panic. In just one day, namely December 18, Belarusians was purchased currency in the amount of $ 80 million, significantly more than the average amounts. Even in the autumn of the same year, the volume of currency purchases does not exceed $ 5 million. Authorities immediately took drastic measures and decided to let the exchange rate float freely. In comparison with 2011, when the country's leadership did, the response was rapid.
Consider what has led to the devaluation of the ruble in 2015. What to do, everyone will decide for themselves, but the consequences of the phenomenon can be assessed. Significant concession as a result of the situation inherited exporters. When this big push is not to be expected, because the main consumer of Belarusian products is Russia (more than 43% of exports), and she currently is experiencing a downturn. Economic growth is blocked Bank interest rates that have become completely unaffordable for businesses. Many, in considering the question of what it means devaluation of the ruble, saying the drop in their earnings in dollar terms. Due to the national currency peg to the dollar, the Euro and the ruble, there is a significant instability. The devaluation of the ruble and a mortgage on reasonable terms - the concept is almost incompatible. Today the national currency has become an indicator of the state's economy, a symbol of her unstable condition.
Economic Growth in Belarus increased 1.6 times in 2014. In 2015 we expect GDP growth of 0,2-0,5%. Wage growth is expected in connection with the upcoming presidential election. Devaluation is associated with a reduction in financial support from Russia. Statistics says that during the first devaluation of the country's citizens have acquired about 48 thousand cars in Russia, despite the fact that the country offers for the purchase of vehicles more profitable. The flow of funds amounted to about 500 million. To maintain the exchange rate of the national currency, the government spent $ 760 million, which resulted in a reduction of gold reserves to 5 billion. The demand for foreign currency has led to increased rates and further freezing of credit. Was frozen the cost of food, medicines and tariffs of state enterprises. Over-the-counter transactions currency was under a taboo until 2017. Having considered the question of what threatens the devaluation of the ruble the population is to changes in interest rates on loans and deposits. They were completely tied to the national currency.
In 2015, the state must fully repay their external debt, the size of which is about 3 billion. The allocation of funds from the budget for the calculation of the partners should not have an impact on demand reduction. Help from Russia in the material equivalent though, and will open the flow of imports, but the situation is not completely solve. The problem in the banking sector will remain for years unresolved. This is due to the fact that foreign assets are located in the negative zone. To get rid of the losses on the removed deposits can only bet 50% or more. Having studied the question of what it means to ruble depreciation for Belarus, we can say that the process for the country more than usual. Since 2000, the national currency has slipped by about 10% in just a week at least 5 times. The course is under pressure from increased import demand, wage growth significantly exceeds trade with a fixed rate. The economy is constantly heated in subsidized loans and subsidized construction. Devaluation has never been used to eliminate the problems, as it always was followed by decrees on increase of salaries. The country's economy thanks to the support of Russia never fell into a deep pit.
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Alin Trodden - author of the article, editor
"Hi, I'm Alin Trodden. I write texts, read books, and look for impressions. And I'm not bad at telling you about it. I am always happy to participate in interesting projects."
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