When will the dollar go? How to analyze the situation on the currency market and to understand: the dollar will rise or fall?

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2019-04-16 17:20:28

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The US dollar Rate against the ruble in recent years highly variable: after the 2008-2009 crisis, the U.S. currency has fallen in price considerably. In 2013 and early 2014 has increased again. Market experts believe that the situation and the response to the question of whether the fall of the dollar, influenced by a range of factors, both economic and political.

Oil Price

One of the points of view, the dollar / ruble exchange rate in 2014 will vary greatly. The sharp rise of the U.S. currency may be accompanied by a gradual restoration of the positions of the Russian currency. The ruble, according to experts, is largely dependent on oil prices. The higher it is, the weaker will be the dollar. If the oil price falls, the government of Russia to compensate for the drawdown in the budget, devalue the ruble, to help out with export «black gold» more.

When will the dollar go

However, the positive macroeconomic statistics coming from the USA, as well as the gradual withdrawal of the EU from a long recession suggests that the price of oil will remain at quite high level (about $ 100 per barrel). The ruble, thereby, reinforced by the stability of the Western economies. In 2014, if oil prices will sharply go on decrease, the Russian currency after that will fall in price against the us. If the opposite – it remains only to wait when the dollar will fall.

The Ruble is not weak

There is a view that the Russian ruble is generally not a weak currency. According to the calculations of the supporters of this thesis, the national currency of our country in real terms has appreciated over the last 10 years by 60%. If, for example, citizens all these years kept their savings in rubles, they definitely won. At the same time, this strengthening of the Russian currency, as economists believe, will sooner or later be priced in by the market. Despite the large volumes of fuel exports, the inflow of net money (in the form of wages, remittances) is low. The Russian economy, thereby, can experience this problem, and the rouble as a consequence will return the dollar “favor” of previous years.

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Yet “hardwood”

Some experts believe that the ruble – the currency against which it is difficult to have confidence: how will the dollar fall or rise of Russian banknotes is to predict problematic. It is enough to remember the 90-ies, when the ruble could at the most inopportune moment to become worthless “paper”. Too many factors traditionally affecting the ruble exchange rate: the price of oil, the policy of the Central Bank in the banking system, the behavior of themselves private KB.

the Dollar will rise or fall

Forecasts for 2014 year do not exclude that the ruble is devalued – largely because Russia joined the WTO, resulting in the share of imports could grow and the production inside the country – to shrink. There are numbers by the end of 2013, the Euro has reached 45 rubles, while in 2012 this indicator was considered impossible. Therefore, it is possible increase the rate to 50 units of Russian currency for a single European. In turn, the U.S. economy in recent years, there are signs of stabilization, and the experts in respect of the dollar are more optimistic.

Speculating makes no sense

Despite the fact that market experts remain pessimistic about the ruble, nobody advises to invest in American currency as a form of savings. There is a version that the population artificially scare custom article economists as well as heating of various rumors and gossip with the sole purpose-to provoke buying citizens of an increasing amount of U.S. currency. These “owners” banknotes – not the speculators, and Central banks. They say when the dollar will fall, and when they grow up.

Fall buck

There is an interesting point of view: if the Russians can somehow affect our CB that still works, rather, respecting the interests of the oligarchs, not the people, “bucks” may go down to 30 rubles by the end of 2014. Also, some experts emphasize – even if there is a sharp deterioration of the economic situation, the government has a Reserve Fund, where “stocked” about 5 trillion rubles. This will be enough to cover a very large budget deficit.

Positive Outlook

Many experts, in the course of currency trading recent months have seen steps when the Central Bank of Russia does not conduct any foreign exchange intervention. The rate of the national currency, thus, fell into the so-called “neutral corridor», when the Central Bank does not matter: the dollar will rise or fall. The cost of "currency basket" at this point, does not exceed critical for the Central Bank values at 41 rubles. There are fundamental and speculative factors for the further behavior of the Russian currency against the dollar and the Euro.

the Dollar will rise or fall

Regarding the first – there is a significant growth of foreign trade balance of Russia. This is largely due to the improved financial situation of the Eurozone countries, which are the main economic partners of our country. The ECB predicts that the Euro area GDP could grow by 1.1% by the end of 2014. As a result, may lead to increased demand for fuelresources from Russia, as well as increase their prices. In addition, the weakening of the ruble against the dollar and Euro, which occurred in 2014, in fact, improved the trade balance of our country due to the active import substitution. So not the fact that Russian business is sitting and waiting for the dollar will fall.

Figures from the government

The Ministry of economic development predicts that the ruble (in real effective terms) in 2014 will be weakened by 7.4% (while some time ago the calculation was the price reduction of 1.5%). This figure was voiced at the highest Ministerial level. In 2015, the Russian currency will be able, as suggested by the Ministry of economic development, strengthened by 0.2% in 2016 – 1.1%, and some in 2017 – 0.1%. The ruble against the dollar in 2014, according to the Department, in the annual average will reach 36.3 units (compared to 33.9 in the previous calculation). In 2015, one “bucks”, is expected to cost 38,8 Russian banknotes in 2016, almost the same is 38.7, in 2017 too, without any changes – 38.5 cm.

When the dollar will fall in price

The Ministry also believes that the average price of a barrel of Urals oil barges will increase to 104 dollars, and in 2015-2016 will drop to 100 units of the American currency. In 2017 «black gold”, according to forecasts of the Ministry, will drop to 98 dollars per barrel. The state would probably not wondering when the dollar will fall in price.

Figures from analysts

According to current forecasts, UBS investment Bank, the Russian economy in 2014 will grow only 1.5% (as in the previous calculations appeared the figure of 2.5%), and in 2015 – 2% (before it was expected at 2.8%). As a result of the revaluation of the vision of the financial situation in our country, the analysts of credit organizations expect “currency” basket, discussed above, will be worth 44.2 ruble by the end of 2014 (previously called the rate at 40.7 unit of Russian currency).

When the dollar will fall

Regarding vzaimoporozhdeniya the dollar and the Euro, by the end of 2014, analysts at UBS expect that 1 unit of American currency will cost 1,25 European banknotes. This roughly corresponds to the expectations for ruble (37,6 per dollar by December 2014). In 2015 the Euro against the “bucks”, believe in UBS, and will drop to the level of 1.20. Bank analysts expect that the Russian Central Bank will not interfere in currency trading, however, not exclude that the monetary policy of the Central Bank will tighten. But in their forecasts almost no space thesis about the development of our economy, when the dollar falls.

The Ukrainian factor

Russian experts do not disregard the situation in Ukraine and the behavior of the dollar against the national currency of the neighboring country – the national currency. The international monetary Fund sees a reasonable rate in the 10.5 to 11 units of this currency to “buck”. There is a pessimistic scenario in which the dollar can rise to 12-13 hryvnias. Among the reasons-the increase in prices for gas for Ukraine, deterioration of the trade partnership with Russia, which could trigger a balance of payments deficit of the country and lead to the devaluation of the hryvnia. An important factor in the policies of the IMF.

Fall of the dollar in Ukraine

If the Fund will give Ukraine a loan, the national currency of the country in relation to the dollar may strengthen. Tranche from the IMF can become a positive signal for investors from abroad and entrepreneurs. One of the other positive indicators – mindset of the leaders of Russia and the USA to contribute to the resolution of the situation in the country through diplomatic means. But the political game – too complicated to know for sure whether the fall of the dollar in Ukraine.

Cautious

Experts point out that to understand how to behave in the dollar is based on “future course”, it is easy - due to the fact that the Russian Central Bank publishes the exchange rate of current day as an official for tomorrow. Much harder to make long-term forecasts and to say, when will the dollar or the Euro, is impossible. The U.S. dollar exchange rate against the Russian is very much dependent on two groups of factors. Firstly, it is, as such, the power of the ruble. It depends on the situation within the Russian economy and political processes. Second – the dollar against other world currencies (primarily the Euro), to predict the values of which difficult. Therefore, analysts suggest market players too hard to trust long-term predictions about the behavior of the American currency.


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Alin Trodden - author of the article, editor
"Hi, I'm Alin Trodden. I write texts, read books, and look for impressions. And I'm not bad at telling you about it. I am always happy to participate in interesting projects."

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