Risk assessment of technical systems. The basics of methodology of analysis and risk management

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2020-03-31 14:00:20

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Risk Assessment of technical systems and the adoption of adequate decision - relevant everyday practices in which the right decision is essential and always adequately defines the objective effects that do not always correspond to reasonable-reasonable calculation.

risk assessment of technical systems

All the technical systems that have ever been created, operate on the basis of objective laws, especially physical, chemical, gravitational, social. The skill level of the technician, the level of development of the theory and practice of risk analysis and management is certainly important, but not always objectively reflect the reality.

Background, theory and price risk assessment

The Variety of technical systems is determined by the multiplicity of types of industrial activity, differences of industrial facilities, their relevance to the spheres of human activity.

reliability of technical systems and anthropogenic risk

The analysis of the technological risk, examines the likely negative consequences:

  • The failure of technical systems
  • Failures in industrial processes,
  • Maintenance error.

Has a reasonable sense to consider the negative impact on people and the natural environment.

Even the safe functioning of production facilities (emissions, leakage of harmful substances, untreated sewage, etc.) can lead to the need for risk assessment of various options and consequences.

The Human factor in risk assessment

The Results of the application of technical systems in the context of the expected risk is essential for informed decision-making:

  • Determination of placement;
  • The design of production facilities;
  • Transportation and storage of hazardous substances and materials;
  • Power supply (gas, electricity, compressed air);
  • Etc.

In the study of risk find the use of formal methods and algorithms, takes into account a variety of situations which may face the Manager and the working staff.

examples of the risks

Uncertainty is a characteristic quality of the implementation of the technical system. In many cases, the decisions of a particular specialist that has an impact on the methodology, progress and results of the risk analysis.

Environment of existence of technical systems

As a rule, the technical system is created by people. Ideas of nature and initiatives of the aliens usually do not carry such risk and not require as much attention as the creation of human hands.

The Reliability of technical systems and technogenic risk objectives are determined by its scope. For example, the house and its engineering structures are always associated with the territory, its features, climate, influence of other technical systems, human activities, etc.

reliability of technical systems and risk assessment

Natural phenomena affect the technical system is not intentionally, but objectively. People may not have the idea that as a result of their “reasonable” action building or engineering structures may be in an emergency situation.

As a result, new home construction, which will add loads on engineering structures of the territory, can hurt the already existing technical system. As a result of hurricane, for example, can carry the roof or damage the supporting structures.

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The House, built by specialists who are accustomed to the peculiarities of certain areas, can cause significant harm to the territory, which has specific requirements for foundations of structures, in particular.

Operation of the aircraft by experienced pilots on the usual routes will necessarily lead to unexpected situations when crossing the mountainous terrain or in flight over areas where the atmosphere peculiar to differential pressure, air flow, etc.

Risk Assessment of technical systems and among them, “existence” task, the relevance of which is growing every day. But the complexity of this task is proportional to the speed of creation of new technical systems and new alternatives impact on existing systems.

The Emergence and development of technical systems

Normal human activity and performance of the generated mechanisms never go beyond the reasonable necessary and actual capabilities.

The Car replaced the horse, and the emergence of Railways, ships and aeroplanes changed the transportation infrastructure of goods and passengers. Every technical system is not static, and its functionality and applicability reflects its technical capabilities in the background of the prevailing environment and other technical systems.

As the system itself and its functionality only in very rare cases lies within the competence of its creators, much more often it is the activities of anyone who maintains, repairs, modernizes, completes, completes.

Real-world examples of risks in this process of natural development (source):

  • Natural phenomena;
  • The human factor;
  • Technical system;
  • Socio-economic environment.

They determine the consequences of varying degrees of severity form the need “do something” toto maintain the required functionality and to restore the operability of a technical system, which were influenced by natural phenomena (flood, landslide, earthquake, ...), which was damaged by the actions of people, exposure to other technical systems or were without "livelihood" when the socio-economic situation has changed dramatically.

Options to influence the current system are many. Risks arise both in the case when the person does nothing, and when he assesses the situation and is taking steps to increase the reliability of technical systems and to reduce development risk.

Progress systems and the development of the theory of risk assessment

Technological progress has long meant that people consciously began to form the scientific foundations in the field of analysis and risk assessment. Scientists have long argued that “the Risks and dangers in the development of civilization was, is and will be -- will have to accustom themselves to the thought of having to live under this burden... this means only one thing: mankind must learn to ultimately reduce the risk and danger”.

investigation of the reliability and risk of technical non-redundant system

Usually, risk analysis methods understand:

  • Statistics;
  • Feasibility costs;
  • Expert assessments;
  • Dimension;
  • An analogy (the use of analogues);
  • Financial stability;
  • Impact analysis;
  • Combination options.

It works, but not always. The modern stage of development of social consciousness, the number and complexity of existing technical systems is so great that it is often difficult to talk about the real qualified human impact on a particular system, which is not causes the appearance of a new risk or real danger.

Nevertheless, it is the development of a methodology of analysis and risk assessment, the accumulation of statistical data and the actual experimental material in the process of operation has led to the fact that the reliability of technical systems and risk assessment have become essential components in the creation of new systems and develop existing ones.

Self-Developing system in statics

Often surprised to hear that the basic design of the airplane or ocean liner, were created in the last century. But to create a radically new aircraft or liner today from scratch is absurd, and at this point in time, neither a qualified person has not offered anything completely new.

Knowledge of the last century, as the theoretical achievements of Archimedes, fundamentally useful. They are the Foundation of modern understanding of things and their functionality. This is normal and natural. And it works, providing informed risk management, gives a mathematical apparatus for determining the Reliability Of one or another system, to assess the risk of emergency and its consequences.

A Completely different scenario to give the system, which are Integral Part of human life, in addition, continuously being improved by the mass of people. So it is difficult to evaluate the risks, perform analysis and predict the development of the Internet, web resources, programs. These technical systems do not operate as intended by the author (team of developers).

Self-Developing system dynamics

A programming Language today is not the application, which was planning its creators at the time of implementation, the release of new versions. The programmer uses a programming language to the limits of their competence and experience. It was the least interested in the ideas of the creators of the language.

reliability of technical systems and technogenic risk tasks

But the mistake made by the developer of the tool, can cause harm to the system, which was created by a programmer with the help of this tool. Most often, the damage will cause the user of such a system, using it not, as suggested by the programmer.

These circumstances lead to actions to prevent the negative influence of the system without the participation of its Creator and especially without developer tool. In this context, risk assessment of technical systems acquires a different meaning:

  • There is a tool for creating the technical system;
  • There is a system created by the instrument;
  • There are a lot of system applications in various fields;
  • There are many implementations of adaptation of system functionality;
  • There is a problem of choosing the optimal adaptation and its reverse influence on the system and the instrument of its creation.

Simply put, the knowledge of some specialists, turned into a technical system, it is separated from the Creator. This knowledge was applied in practice and have found a lot of use cases that entailed not only new knowledge, but also specific new system implementation. New knowledge separated from their developers and created a reason for combining them for analysis and evaluation for a reverse influence on the system.

Backup systems to improve reliability

Safety and reliability have always been key terms in the design and operation of any system. Moreover, the level and degree of responsibility of the system, as a rule, not critical. Investigation of the reliability and risk of technical non-redundant system is more important.

A Factory for processing oil and conventional water faucet totally differentsystem, but a study of the safety, reliability and risk of technical non-redundant system important in both cases.

reservation systems

Reserve system in whole or in part of its particular element is not always appropriate, and often fundamentally impossible.

But the redundancy can be executed in different ways. Some elements of the system can simply be replaced entirely and this will be the perfect solution. Some systems just need to replace a new one, based upon experience with previous models, but not necessarily smooth.

Systems Theory, methodology of risk assessment and management has never been a dogma since its inception. As a system of knowledge based on experience, statistics and the intuition of experts, they represent a dynamic potential that in each situation an individual manner.


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Alin Trodden - author of the article, editor
"Hi, I'm Alin Trodden. I write texts, read books, and look for impressions. And I'm not bad at telling you about it. I am always happy to participate in interesting projects."

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