At the end of 2013-beginning of 2014 the ruble has fallen significantly against the dollar. But by June the situation, as shown by the graphs of trading on the international foreign exchange markets have developed largely in favor of the Russian currency. Which of the trends are considered to be fundamental? Whether to grow the dollar in 2014 in the coming months against the ruble and other world currencies?
Experts of the international currency trading market, trying to assess the prospects of Russian money, has formed two camps. Representatives of the first are sure that the ruble will weaken in the future – as it happened in the first months of 2014. Analysts are opposed to them (mainly representatives of governmental institutions) who believe that any concern about the rate of the national currency should not be. At the same time, the figures are eloquent: in some moments of trading, the dollar was 35 rubles and above, reached historic highs.
What are the reasons that the ruble significantly so «sagged»? Experts identify several groups of factors. First, the Central Bank significantly loosened control over foreign exchange trades involving the ruble. Thus, without intervention, the Russian currency was slightly weaker than for them. Second, the growth of the dollar contributed by the citizens of Russia, are actively buying up American money. Third, there is an interesting factor – the government from the economic point of view, the weak ruble is favorable, since the bulk of the exported goods are sold for foreign currency, mostly just the same US dollars. Businesses whose products are exported abroad, as well as the budget of the country feel more comfortable only because the ruble is losing value.
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In the expert community are called a variety of numbers reflecting a further dollar in 2014. However, each of the projections takes into account a very specific reason for the rise or fall of currencies. The differences in the vision of the dollar against the ruble, thus, due to the difference in the estimation of the experts the possible impact of key factors on the value of Russian money. For example, if the oil price will decrease from the current values at just over $ 100 per barrel to 80, the ruble, analysts say, will inevitably fall in price to 38-39 units per dollar.
If the price of «black gold» will be higher, and the Russian currency with a high probability simultaneously more expensive. Interestingly, citizens of the Russian Federation are quite pessimistic. As shown by recent opinion polls, Russians on the whole are expected to continue the devaluation phenomena.
Analysts and experts who work in the homeland of American currency, trying to determine what are the prospects of currency in the market. Among them there are those who believe that it is legitimate to make a positive forecast of the dollar, for 2014 at least.
Very much in the vision of the future of the foreign exchange market, experts say, depends on trading with other Bank notes, in particular between the pound sterling and the Euro. Some American analysts think it more likely that the pound will rise against the “continental” due to the fact that the European Central Bank will continue to ease policy intervention in trades. The dollar will rise, experts say, and in relation to their counterparts in Canada and New Zealand, as the news about the state of the economies of these countries is not entirely positive.
There is a theory that the fall in trading of the ruble as a currency of an emerging market due to the fact that in the United States-the country with the largest economy in the world - things are looking up, so that investors have more confidence in the dollar. About the same processes can be traced in Europe. Market Russia (and other developing countries), in turn, as some analysts believe, may seem insufficiently attractive to investors. The current development potential of the Russian economy, the advocates of this point of view, exhausted – will need new production, innovative types of businesses. Among the advantages of the Russian market – a balanced budget, the availability of international reserves. Oil, analysts said, with a small probability may fall in price below $ 100 per barrel. Thus, further growth of the dollar in 2014 in relation to the Russian currency, on the one hand, has a Foundation in the success of the American economy, and on the other – opposed to relative stability of the Russian market with reserves and liquid exports.
Stay at one of the factors determining the growth of the dollar against currencies of developing countries, including the ruble (and in some cases – also banknotes developed countries) – talking about the successes achieved in overcoming the crisis by the Americans. Financial institutions, relevant to the US market, is the set of positive trends, which suggests a normalization of the economy of the country.
The Monetary policy of the fed, experts say, will be sufficiently soft and therefore contributing to the growth of shares on the stock exchanges. Treasury bonds will have a stable profitability. In turn, business in the European market are slightly different. Bonds of certain Eurozone countries start to go up. The European Central Bank holds, analysts say, is not fully effective monetary policy.
In mid-June 2014, a meeting of the U.S. Federal reserve on further monetary policy. Right at that moment, when there was a press conference of the head of the Federal reserve system, the dollar has strongly fallen in price. The fed has decided to reduce the expected growth of the US economy in 2014, and leave the previous calculations regarding the 2015-2016 valid. The rate of inflation, the financiers expect the same, the unemployment situation several promises to improve.
However, the trade deficit of the U.S. increased much more than planned-mainly, analysts say, because of falling exports. The fed plans to keep the minimum interest rates. Some revolutionary changes in the monetary policy of the United States, experts do not expect, so not many dare to give strong predictions on the growth of the dollar. 2014, therefore, may not be for the American currency key in terms of consolidating positions relative to the money of the developed countries and also the pound and the Euro.
What determines the market price of national currencies? By a process similar to pricing any other goods, the basic mechanism that determines the value of the banknotes of different countries – supply and demand. In turn, the conditions of formation of the parameters of these two phenomena depend on some other factors. Among them – the foreign trade balance of the country, which is the Issuer of currency, monetary policy authorities (Central banks), as well as political priorities. Regardless of the time period in which the growth of the dollar – 2014 year or the other, these patterns are relevant.
Admission to the national market currencies from the outside depends on what is the value of exports of goods and services. Exporters to pay the costs associated with the production of their products, buy national currency – the greater the volume of sales abroad, the higher demand for the domestic currency of the country and the higher its rate at the auction. Shops to buy something abroad, you must have to acquire foreign currency.
They form a demand within the country. The more intense import, the more there is a demand for foreign banknotes, and the lower the rate of the national currency. For the dollar these laws as relevant. So investors, when assessing the possibility of whether to grow the dollar in 2014, and with what intensity, is studied primarily foreign trade statistics of the United States. An important factor in determining the numbers in currency trading – payment balance of the state. If it is positive, it contributes to the growth rate of the national currency. Therefore, if the U.S. economy this year will go well, and the balance will be characterized by positive trends, the dollar exchange rate for 2014 with high probability will be predicted as high.
The Main forms of supply of currency – the printing and issue of loans to private banks, both operations are made by the state and its associated financial institutions. If the money supply of the economy is fast, the intensity of the demand for banknotes may not have time for this, whereby the currency can decline. Experts, forming the forecast of the dollar in 2014, therefore, evaluated the activity of printing banknotes America...
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