What will happen to oil's next: predictions


2018-03-17 21:00:39




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The Question about what will happen with oil, interested in a large percentage of the population in the world. Increased interest in the pricing of «black gold» explain their impact not only on the economies of many countries, but also on the global economy as a whole.

Rates 2014

what is oil

In the second half of 2014, the cost of raw materials was at the level of 110 dollars, which is perfect not only Russia but also other countries-exporters of fuel. Russia's budget was replenished by vigorous activity of the largest oil companies in particular, such as "Gazprom". Oil rose in price until mid-summer of 2014 and peaked at around $ 115. A similar situation existed in the USA, the OPEC countries and in some European countries. From late summer 2014 until the end of December the whole world was watching the speed drop in oil prices, which reached the level of $ 60. By the end of winter was recorded multi-year low at around $ 48. In that period, even the world's experts could not with partial certainty about what will happen with oil in the near future, as all the forecasts made the day before, was almost completely erroneous.

Factors, prostimulirujte drop of oil, and their influence now


Trying to make a prediction for the future, many experts refer to the factors which, in their opinion, led to falling prices. You can talk about the following points:

  • Reduction in growth of the world economy. The EU and China has stalled development, Japan is in recession. Industry States require less fuel, which leads to a sharp reduction in demand. Large amounts of fossil fuels and low interest stimulate falling prices. Experts predict a slight improvement towards the end of 2015.
  • OPEC Countries, starting from September 2014, has significantly increased the volume of extracted fuel to the level at 30.5 million barrels. Saudi Arabia has officially declared that does not intend to reduce production quotas «black gold», even if its value on the world market will be just $ 20.
  • The Growth of oil production in the U.S. to the level of 8.9 million barrels.
  • A lot of competition became the basis for discounts on the purchase of fuel. In the hard struggle for the consumer in 2015 to give a price agreed countries such as Qatar and Iran, Saudi Arabia.
  • Overall demand for hydrocarbons is reduced due to the development in Europe of energy-saving technologies. The trend in the coming decades will not change.

Considering all the factors together, they say that by the end of 2015, the situation on the world oil market will not return to normal. Most experts suggest raising the cost of fuel to a level of $ 75. 5 may 2015 has been fixed price at 70 dollars.


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The Price of oil in 2015, taking into account the decisions of the governments of the countries

Many experts trying to make a prediction about what will happen to oil prices this year, repelled only by the decisions of the governments of the countries-participants of the world oil market. Saudi Arabia's budget was drawn up taking into account the fact that the cost of a barrel of oil will not fall below those of 2014. Based on this, many experts were betting on the fact that the fuel for the entire year of 2015 will trade at 99 dollars. After the collapse of the market the budget has been completely revised. The bet was made at $ 60 per barrel of oil. Field the official publication of the budgets began to appear forecasts that in 2015 the price of fuel will not exceed the price level of $ 65. This reference to Saudi Arabia due to the fact that the state is the leader of the cartel called OPEC.

What was said at an international conference in April 2015?

Gazprom Neft

In April of 2015 on the territory of Texas hosted an international conference, which was actively discussed issues relating to oil. In his speech, the head of the company «LUKOIL” were the words that fuel prices will no longer go down. Businessman Vagit Alekperov noted the progress and penetration prices its historical minimum, which is directly testified to the unlikely continuation of the trend. According to Goldman Sachs analyst Jeff Kerry, in the first half of 2015, prices have gone down because of the publication of poor forecasts for the third quarter of 2015. The prerequisites of the phenomena he considers extremely sharp rise of the U.S. dollar. Jeff focuses on the fact that the situation has stabilized a bit. With his opinion agreed fully Juha Kahanian, occupying the post of Deputy Director of the division of the IMF in Asia and the middle East. Both experts are inclined to further price growth, which is predicted and the IMF. Recall that in late August 2014, experts focused on the cost of oil by the end of 2015, within $ 99.

Other side of the coin

oil countries

Considering the question of what will happen to oil prices in the future, does not agree with the opinion Kahanian and Kerry, and refutes the IMF forecast for Aydar Kozybayev, the representative of the National Bank of Kazakhstan. He says that world oil will not be able to stay at around $ 99 in the near future, moreover, it even reaches this level. The economist relies on $ 85 per barrel Brent oil and $ 75 per barrel for Brent WITI. The assumptions the expert is based on the strong influence of the situation in Russia to such countries as Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are States importers. Oversupply of oil caused the price fall, and spring the stabilization of the situation in a number of States significantly affected the recovery of the price level. In the future, the trend will continue, despite the fact that high 2014 (105 – 110 per barrel) and will not be able to achieve.

The Most shocking predictions 2014: the market against the budget States

oil market

In 2014 one of the most feared forecast, which has only considered some of the world's analysts, including Russian, was he according to which the crude oil price fell to $ 60. Most of the experts agreed with the price of «black gold” in 2015 at the level of 90 dollars. A less stressful scenario assumed a decline in oil to $ 91 in 2015 and $ 90 for 2016 – 2017. Presumably, this would lead to the decline in GDP in 2015 to the level of 0.6% with a recovery to the level of 1,7-2,8 % in 2016 – 2017. For the moment the situation is in fact (falling below $ 49 per barrel in January), watched by the whole world. The oil market behaved in unpredictable ways.

Where to look for the truth?

All the predictions are now able to give the analysts, vary in a wide range from incredibly optimistic to stress. The OPEC countries, who do not intend to cut production quotas of fuel, consider the scenario prices drop to $ 20, as I declare that in this situation will not change its tactics. IMF is confident in the future and believes that by the end of 2015 oil prices will delight values within 90 - $ 99. The majority of market participants are simply watching the situation and avoid important decisions. You can say that the truth is somewhere in the middle, as evidenced by the situation on the market today. Despite the fact that oil production by countries for the last 3-4 months has not changed, the cost of fuel has leveled off a bit. So, as of mid-June 2015 Brent crude is at a level close to 65 dollars per barrel, despite the fact that tested the level of 70 dollars per barrel.

Statistics by month 2015

 world oil

So, where in the future will go the oil market? Studying fundamental factors, many experts are talking about one and the same. Oil exports in many States will remain at the same level until the end of 2015, which gives a good reason to talk about the following values:

  • In early June, the price of oil averaged $ 66 in the end of the month she will stop at rate of 69 dollars. The projected high at $ 76 and minimum of $ 60. For the first two weeks of June mirror the vertices have not yet been achieved.
  • July forecast is more promising. It will start at around $ 69 and will end with a price of $ 72. The maximum and minimum will be at levels at $ 77 and $ 61. Average price – 71 dollars.
  • From September to December the price range, despite the fact that oil production across countries may be redistributed because of development of deposits of resources in Russia in the Arctic and revitalization projects in the United States, will change from $ 55 to $ 77.

What awaits the world market in 2016 – 2017?

Far from stable situation in the world is not stopping the world's major analysts, including representatives of the company «Gazprom», oil and its motion to consider...

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Alin Trodden - author of the article, editor
"Hi, I'm Alin Trodden. I write texts, read books, and look for impressions. And I'm not bad at telling you about it. I am always happy to participate in interesting projects."

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