Why is the dollar rising?

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2018-11-08 13:00:32

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Let's Start with history. During the Second world countries, the allies had established a system called Bretton woods. Its essence consisted in the following: the dollar should be the world currency and backed by gold. This system was unbreakable until the beginning of the nineties, did not depend on the balance of supply and demand. It was from that time the dollar is rising. And it grows relentlessly, continuing to remain the main reserve currency of most banks in the world, including in Russia.

Why is the dollar rising? Reduction (and sometimes elimination) of assets of some countries (including BRIC), lead to the sale of currency for dollars. This automatically increases the demand for the dollar. Another incentive — selling the US Treasury's own bonds. The American economy remains the largest in the world as the standard for the rest.

The American society, perhaps the most enterprising. It is this feature allows you to quickly exit the crisis. And this is what continues to give investors confidence in the American currency, that's why the dollar is rising. Naturally, they find themselves afloat in any situation, the economy attracts the eye of the strongest investors on a global scale. And this fact allows to speak about stability in all conditions.

Go ahead. The law of correspondence and the amount of money that these goods can be purchased, changed a little. Now he pushed away from the established exchange rate. Well, course, as we know, is determined by the exchange.

Like the U.S., the crisis has not bypassed. Here, too, mentioned the bankruptcy, unemployment, budget deficit. But at the peak of the crisis, the dollar has become particularly relevant. Paradox? Not at all. Understanding the reasons for the growth of the course, we will answer the main question of why the rising dollar.

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If under these conditions the U.S. economy continued to grow, the dollar would be just insane. But other factors play the role of counterweight: lower the price of oil, decline of the economy in all other countries.

But the price of the currency continues to grow. Why? Investors lost interest in the falling price of oil, switched to dollars. The dollar, being a commodity, is recognized throughout the world, has become more attractive precisely because of its cheapness in this period. This begs the question of why the rising dollar and not Euro? It's simple: the Euro — a pretty young currency, but the dollar is the trump card — a century of trust and recognition, so even in the fall, he will remain the strongest in the world. In addition, a huge list of external debts will not allow the US to go bankrupt. All together explains the changes in investors ' appetite and, consequently, the growth rates for the currency.

This process can be seen in the example of the dollar-ruble. Over the past 2012 year, the ruble at the strange acquiescence of the Central Bank fell by approximately 18%, continuing to fall further. Why the dollar is rising, the ruble is falling and will it ever stop this process at all? Why the Central Bank is indifferent to the fall of the national currency-the ruble?

Many economic experts point to the European debt crisis and reduced demand for oil. But this is only a tiny fraction of the truth. The basis of the Russian economy — export. The stability of this sector should be, in theory, the task №1. But it is happening to exporters only, the more so that already a significant part of the proceeds from exports abroad. And this fact allows us to form a cushion of financial security for extra 18-20% (or even more).

At the same time punished and the financial speculators, who like such easy money on game interest rates. "Capital flight", so much discussion, is actually the attraction from abroad of dollar-denominated loans. And although some of them are psevdokreditami their own offshore companies, they massively extinguished. Under the pressure of loans, the state had to retain abroad the same amount the state reserves for exclusion uncontrolled attacks on the ruble. The elimination of private foreign currency loan partially free hand, removing the need for private investment in the West, thereby deducing from-under possible blow of its own state funds. And this — a double benefit: rubles per dollar in the Central Bank turns more, and the state reserves have not be associated with the possible collapse of the financial system of the West. So phlegmatic is watching the Central Bank for gambling and buying dollars, freed from "foreign color." However, 30,76 the ruble exchange rate may "bounce" up to 40 per dollar, delighting the lovers of risk.

Now back to the global scale. That draws attention to themselves in the first place? Full coordination of movement of all markets. With the growth of the dollar falls, the Euro, bonds, oil, gold. And the reason — on the surface: the United States ran out of money. Of course, you can print them, but the situation for the United States for the better will not change: to refinance the necessary infusions from abroad, the only way one external debts to be replaced. Here should work system of the U.S. Federal reserve - U.S. banks - European banks - U.S. budget. Money available to European banks, left, and European Central Bank that could balance the issue, for some reason hesitates to enter your machine. USA still reap all the stops, trying to prevent the uncontrolled collapse of the dollar, sucking the liquidity from all markets and countries. And this is another answer to the question about why the rising dollar.

It is possible thatrun the printing press of the ECB, the situation stabiliziruemost. We will wait...

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